Download Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370 pdf by Samuel Davey, This book demonstrates how nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian time series estimation ways were accustomed produce a probability distribution of potential MH370 flight paths. It provides details of how the probabilistic models of aircraft flight dynamics, satellite communication system measurements, environmental effects and radar information were constructed and calibrated. The probability distribution was accustomed define the search zone in the southern indian ocean. Download the pdf from below to explore all content and start learning.

BOOK CONTENTS-

1 Introduction
1.1 Summary of Results
2 Factual Description of Accident and Available Information
3 The Bayesian Approach
3.1 The Problem and its Conceptual Solution
3.1.1 Prediction
3.1.2 Update
3.2 The Particle Filter
3.3 Rao–Blackwellised Particle Filter
4 Aircraft Prior Based on Primary Radar Data
5 Measurement Model, Satellite Communications
5.1 Satellite Communications System
5.2 Burst Timing Offset
5.3 Burst Frequency Offset
5.4 C-Channel Telephone Calls
5.5 Information Content of Measurements
6 Aircraft Cruise Dynamics
6.1 Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process
6.1.1 Determining Process Parameters
6.2 Mach Number
6.2.1 Cost Index
6.3 Control Angle
6.3.1 Constant Magnetic Heading
6.3.2 Constant True Heading
6.3.3 Constant Magnetic Track
6.3.4 Constant True Track
6.3.5 Lateral Navigation
6.4 Wind
6.5 Altitude
6.6 Putting It Together
7 Aircraft Manoeuvre Dynamics
7.1 Manoeuvre Frequency
7.2 Manoeuvre Extent
7.2.1 Parameter Selection
7.2.2 Manoeuvre Model Summary
7.3 Example Realisations
8 Particle Filter Implementation
8.1 BFO Bias
8.2 Algorithm
8.3 Assumptions
9 Validation Experiments
9.1 9M-MRO 26 February 2014 Kuala Lumpur to Amsterdam
9.2 9M-MRO 2 March 2014 Mumbai to Kuala Lumpur
9.3 9M-MRO 6 March 2014 Kuala Lumpur to Beijing
9.4 9M-MRO 7 March 2014 Beijing to Kuala Lumpur
9.5 7 March 2014 Kuala Lumpur to Amsterdam
9.6 7 March 2014 Kuala Lumpur to Frankfurt
9.7 Quantitative Analysis
9.7.1 Measurement Selection
9.7.2 Performance Measure
9.7.3 Results
10 Application to the MH370 Accident
10.1 The Filter Applied to the Accident Flight
10.2 Manoeuvre Statistics
10.3 Residual Measurement Errors
10.4 Posterior Distribution of Manoeuvre Time Constant
10.5 End of Flight
10.6 Earlier Initialisation
10.7 Cost Index
10.8 Other Variations
11 Ongoing Refinement
11.1 Updating the Distribution Using Search Results
11.2 Reunion Island Debris
11.2.1 Update of Final Location Distribution
11.2.2 Data from Global Drifter Program
11.2.3 Posterior Distribution Using Debris Data
12 Conclusions

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